Five picks against the NFL number, that’s what we do here. Let’s keep some momentum going after a 4-1 run last week. Share your best picks in the comments, or ping me at @scott_pianowski.
Bills/Buccaneers over 53.5
Weather surely won’t be a problem this week. Every Tampa Bay opponent recognizes it has to throw proactively, and the Buccaneers passing game will appreciate the absence of ace CB, Tre’Davious White. It’s a race to 30 points.
Vegas +9.5 at Kansas City
I still don’t trust the Chiefs to spot a big number against anyone, even a Raiders team that they smashed four weeks ago. Kansas City had just 267 yards of offense against Denver; something is still broken with that unit.
Giants +10 at Chargers
Everything points to a Chargers blowout, especially after LAC was so impressive at Cincinnati last week. And I can’t give you any positive angles on the Giants offense. But New York’s defense is scrappy, and often the Chargers have had trouble handling and maintaining success. Hold your nose and take the points.
Texans +8.5 versus Seahawks
Seattle doesn’t deserve to spot this many points on the road to anyone, and maybe Davis Mills can spark the Texans offense (he did play well against New England, and passably against the Rams). Houston’s defense also gives us a backboard for a cover — it’s quietly 10th in defensive DVOA.
Saints -5.5 at Jets
New Orleans has been largely exposed against good competition, but this is a take-out-the-frustrations draw at the right time. The key to this game will be the top 5 New Orleans defense confusing an inexperienced quarterback directing the league’s worst offense.